More on Canadian Political Situation

In the last entry, I focused on Stephen Harper and why his minority government may not be viewed as a reliable partner by Washington. The focus of this post is on Stephane Dion.

(1) Stephane Dion is the leader of the Liberal Party and has shouldered much of the blame for the disastrous showing by the Liberals in the Oct 14th Federal elections. According to polls, Canadians rank Dion behind Harper and Jack Layton of the NDP. He is widely seen to be a weak and ineffective leader. Think of him as a Canadian version of Michael Dukakis. In the aftermath of the election, Dion agreed to step down as the leader of the Liberal party by next May, when they have their convention and will elect a new leader.

The Coalition agreed to by the Liberals, the NDP and Bloc Quebecois will put Dion in charge as the Prime Minister until next May, presumably when the Liberal Party elect a new leader and prime minister.

As some have pointed out, there are several problems with this scenario. First, Dion is widely disliked and the idea that “the loser becomes the winner” appears to be distasteful to a fair number of Canadians. Secondly, Dion will only (assuming that he abides by the agreement) be PM for a few months. This doesn’t exactly bode well for the stability of the coalition. Thirdly, assuming that the Liberal Party finds a new leader next May, Canadian voters may decide that they don’t like the idea that the new PM will largely have been unvetted by the electorate. In the most recent election, there were a series of debates among the leaders of the various political parties such as Harper for the Conservatives, Dion for the Liberals, Jack Layton for the NDP, Elizabeth May for the Green Party and Gilles Duceppe for Bloc Quebecois. Some voters may resent a new PM who has not been vetted by the electorate.

(2) The next problem for the Coalition (the term being used up here) is the sight of Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe being included. Layton is viewed as being to the left of the Liberal Party and the fact that his party is getting some cabinet seats in return for supporting Dion as PM is raising some hackles here. Secondly, while Gilles Duceppe and his party are not getting any seats in the proposed Cabinet, they are going to get some unspecified “respect” as part of the deal. A number of English speaking Canadians are not too keen on the notion of Duceppe having any role to play in the proposed government for the reason that his party has a long term goal of Quebec secession from Canada.

So this coalition is being met with a fair bit of skepticism here in Canada. Due to the make up of this coalition, I doubt that the political environment will be any more stable than a minority Conservative government. Dion will be PM only for a short period of time. Canadians may not be happy not having a say in who becomes the next PM.

The other factor is that, historically, these three parties have not always gotten along well, particularly in the case of relations between the NDP and the Liberal Party. While they are presenting a united front, it is doubtful whether this can last. Duceppe and his party are perceived to have interests that are different than the NDP and Liberal Party and will likely demand concessions from the other two parties favorable to Quebec as a price of remaining in power. Those concessions will likely be unacceptable to a majority of Canadians.

In light of the above, it’s very doubtful that the Coalition will be any more stable than a minority Conservative government.

Therefore, from Washington’s perspective, Canada’s reliability in terms of being a partner on the international stage will be dimmed until a clear majority party takes control. This may cause the Obama administration to look more to Europe for support in its foreign policy.

Lest this be misinterpreted, Canada is a very stable country with a sound economic and financial footing. Indeed, its’ banking system has been declared by Time Magazine to be the soundest in the world. Canada is blessed with great natural resources, including oil and is very attractive to immigrants. The political system, however, has become shaky and it remains to be seen if this is a short term or long term trend.